Rocket Lab: Ready for Liftoff?

Why it’s on our radar

Rocket Lab isn’t new. But the next phase of the company could look very different from the last.

Founded in 2006, Rocket Lab began by tackling one problem: making it easier and cheaper to put small satellites into space.

Twenty years later, it launches rockets, builds satellites and manufactures many of the components that go inside them. Its technology has supported more than 1,700 missions.

Now comes the bigger test.

Rocket Lab is developing Neutron, a much larger reusable rocket designed to compete for satellite constellations, commercial launches and lucrative US national-security missions.

That’s what makes Rocket Lab interesting right now.

01 What exactly is Rocket Lab?

Rocket Lab was founded by New Zealand engineer Sir Peter Beck, who remains CEO, President and Chairman.

Its best-known product is Electron, a small orbital rocket designed to give satellite operators dedicated access to space.

But calling Rocket Lab a rocket company increasingly misses the point.

Its Space Systems business builds satellites, solar panels, flight software, satellite components and other infrastructure needed to operate in space.

The ambition is effectively to become a one-stop shop: build the satellite, supply its components, launch it and potentially operate the constellation.

1. Step 1Build the satellite
2. Step 2Supply its components
3. Step 3Launch it
4. Step 4Potentially operate the constellation

That diversification matters because Rocket Lab isn’t entirely dependent on how many rockets it launches.

02 There’s a real business underneath the story

Rocket Lab generated US$602 million in revenue in 2025, up 38% year-on-year.

Growth accelerated in 2026.

Second-quarter revenue reached a record US$234 million, up 62%, while its backlog — contracted business that has yet to be recognised as revenue — more than doubled to US$2.36 billion.

Its launch pipeline is growing too.

Rocket Lab recently secured its largest commercial launch agreement yet: 20 Electron missions for Japanese satellite operator Synspective. Its total launch backlog now exceeds 100 missions.

There is, however, an important number on the other side of the ledger.

Rocket Lab isn’t profitable yet.

It lost US$198 million in 2025. Investors buying the stock today are therefore paying predominantly for what the business could become.

03 Why now? One word: Neutron

The most important thing to understand about Rocket Lab’s next phase is Neutron.

Electron is designed primarily for smaller payloads. Neutron is a much larger, reusable rocket capable of carrying up to 13,000kg into low-Earth orbit.

That puts Rocket Lab into an entirely different market.

Large satellite constellations. Bigger commercial payloads. National-security missions. Potentially even Rocket Lab’s own future satellite constellation.

The company is currently assembling and testing Neutron hardware, with delivery to its Virginia launch site targeted for Q4 2026.

1. NowAssembling and testing Neutron hardware
2. Target: Q4 2026Delivery to the Virginia launch site
3. NextFirst flight — the catalyst to watch

This creates a very visible catalyst for investors.

A successful development programme could validate years of investment and dramatically expand Rocket Lab’s potential revenue pool.

Further delays — or an unsuccessful launch — would challenge a significant part of today’s investment thesis.

04 The stock has already moved

This isn’t an undiscovered company.

Rocket Lab shares reached roughly US$151 in May, before falling by more than half to around US$73 today.

Zoom out, however, and Rocket Lab remains dramatically more valuable than it was just a few years ago.

Its market capitalisation has grown from roughly US$13 billion at the end of 2024 to around US$46 billion today.

Put that beside US$602 million of 2025 revenue and the important point becomes obvious:

Rocket Lab may be well below its recent high. That doesn’t automatically make it cheap.

The market is already assigning considerable value to Neutron, future contracts and continued expansion of its Space Systems business.

05 The bear case

Rocket Lab’s opportunity comes with substantial execution risk.

• Neutron hasn’t flownNeutron has not flown yet. Rocket development is notoriously difficult, expensive and prone to delays.
• Still loss-makingThe company remains loss-making and will need significant capital as it develops Neutron and expands its infrastructure.
• Government exposureGovernment contracts are an opportunity, but also introduce budget and policy risk.
• CompetitionCompetition across launch, satellites and defence is intense.

And then there is valuation.

A US$46 billion market capitalisation for a company generating hundreds of millions — rather than tens of billions — in annual revenue leaves relatively little room for major execution mistakes.

Investors aren’t paying for Rocket Lab as it exists today.

They’re paying for the company they believe it can become.

What about SpaceX?

It’s tempting to describe Rocket Lab as the “next SpaceX”.

We wouldn’t.

SpaceX operates at vastly greater scale, with businesses spanning Starlink, Falcon, Starship and increasingly AI. Its valuation now exceeds US$2 trillion.

Rocket Lab is a very different proposition.

What makes it interesting isn’t that it needs to become SpaceX.

It’s that from a much smaller base, successful execution on Neutron and its broader space infrastructure strategy could materially change the size of the company.

The potential upside comes with correspondingly greater execution risk.

For Singapore investors, both are US-dollar investments and both provide exposure to the expanding commercial-space economy. But owning both shouldn’t necessarily be mistaken for diversification: many of the technological, regulatory and government-spending forces affecting the sector overlap.